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Granada II vs Malaga — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Granada II
Granada II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Malaga
Malaga
1/27/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Granada II26%
×Draw28%
Malaga46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada II
0.90
Malaga
1.29

Malaga creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Granada II
0.95
Malaga
1.42

allows per match

Granada II
1.16
Malaga
0.84

finishing

Granada II+0.00on par
Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada II ↓

Malaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Granada II or draw
54%
Granada II or Malaga
72%
Draw or Malaga
74%

Winning margin

Granada II wins by 2+
9%
Malaga wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Granada II 1+ goals
59%
Granada II 2+ goals
23%
Granada II 3+ goals
6%
Malaga 1+ goals
72%
Malaga 2+ goals
37%
Malaga 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Granada II (draw refunded)
36%
Malaga (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada II at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Malaga away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada II attack 0.95 + Malaga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Malaga attack 1.42 + Granada II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Granada II scores more
26%
level
28%
Malaga scores more
46%

Malaga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Granada II 0–2 Malaga

Malaga beat Granada II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.