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Granada II vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Granada II
Granada II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
2/11/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Granada II41%
×Draw26%
Linares Deportivo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada II
1.39
Linares Deportivo
1.20

Granada II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Granada II
0.95
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Granada II
1.16
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Granada II+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada II ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Granada II or draw
68%
Granada II or Linares Deportivo
74%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
59%

Winning margin

Granada II wins by 2+
19%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Granada II 1+ goals
75%
Granada II 2+ goals
40%
Granada II 3+ goals
16%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
70%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
34%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Granada II (draw refunded)
56%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada II at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada II attack 0.95 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.39

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Granada II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Granada II scores more
41%
level
26%
Linares Deportivo scores more
32%

Granada II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Granada II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granada II vs Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Granada II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.