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Granada II vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Granada II
Granada II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
3/10/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Granada II35%
×Draw29%
AD Ceuta FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada II
1.08
AD Ceuta FC
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Granada II
0.95
AD Ceuta FC
1.00

allows per match

Granada II
1.16
AD Ceuta FC
1.21

finishing

Granada II+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada II ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Granada II or draw
65%
Granada II or AD Ceuta FC
71%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
65%

Winning margin

Granada II wins by 2+
14%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Granada II 1+ goals
66%
Granada II 2+ goals
29%
Granada II 3+ goals
10%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
66%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
29%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Granada II (draw refunded)
50%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada II at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada II attack 0.95 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.00 + Granada II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Granada II scores more
35%
level
29%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
35%

Granada II at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Granada II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Granada II 0–1 AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC beat Granada II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF in Granada.