Granada CF 0–2 Leganes: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leganes

9/14/2025

Segunda División · Round 5Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Granada CF48%

×Draw28%

Leganes24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchLeganes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.86

Granada CF

1.33

Leganes

0.86

Granada CF creates 55% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 106 away

1.57

creates per match

0.97

0.76

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Granada CF

1.57

Leganes

0.97

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

Leganes

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Leganes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Leganes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

76%

Granada CF or Leganes

72%

Draw or Leganes

52%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

22%

Leganes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

74%

Granada CF 2+ goals

38%

Granada CF 3+ goals

15%

Leganes 1+ goals

58%

Leganes 2+ goals

21%

Leganes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

66%

Leganes (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Leganes away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.57 + Leganes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leganes attack 0.97 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Granada CF scores more

48%

level

28%

Leganes scores more

24%

Granada CF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff