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Granada CF vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Granada CF
Granada CF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
1/27/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 23Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Granada CF49%
×Draw27%
Extremadura24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada CF
1.44
Extremadura
0.92

Granada CF creates 57% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 42 away

creates per match

Granada CF
1.56
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Granada CF
0.76
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw
76%
Granada CF or Extremadura
73%
Draw or Extremadura
51%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+
24%
Extremadura wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals
76%
Granada CF 2+ goals
42%
Granada CF 3+ goals
18%
Extremadura 1+ goals
60%
Extremadura 2+ goals
23%
Extremadura 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)
67%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Granada CF scores more
49%
level
27%
Extremadura scores more
24%

Granada CF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granada CF vs Extremadura

Granada CF and Extremadura drew 0-0 in Segunda División on January 27, 2019.

The match was played at Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.