Granada CF 0–0 Burgos: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos

1/10/2025

Segunda División · Round 22Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Granada CF52%

×Draw27%

Burgos21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.78

Granada CF

1.41

Burgos

0.78

Granada CF creates 81% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 105 away

1.56

creates per match

0.79

0.76

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Granada CF

1.56

Burgos

0.79

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

Burgos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

79%

Granada CF or Burgos

73%

Draw or Burgos

48%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

26%

Burgos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

76%

Granada CF 2+ goals

41%

Granada CF 3+ goals

17%

Burgos 1+ goals

54%

Burgos 2+ goals

18%

Burgos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

71%

Burgos (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.25 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Burgos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Burgos attack 0.79 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Granada CF scores more

52%

level

27%

Burgos scores more

21%

Granada CF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Ricard Sánchez

Granada CF · D

7.9

Match Events

34'

Eduardo Espiau

44'

Georgiy Tsitaishvili

50'

Iván Morante← Marcelo Expósito

60'

L. Boyé← Pablo Sáenz

65'

Iñigo Cordoba

67'

Iván Morante

75'

Fer Niño← Iñigo Córdoba

77'

Miguel Atienza

77'

K. Jóźwiak← Reinier

81'

A. Arroyo← Curro Sánchez

81'

Mario Cantero← Edu Espiau

81'

Borja Sánchez← Dani Ojeda

84'

Fernando Niño

88'

Samu Cortés← G. Tsitaishvili

89'

Loïc Williams

90+4'

Pipa

90'

Anderson Arroyo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaBurgos

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots10

5Corners2

9Fouls23

Shots

13Total Shots10

2On Target3

8Off Target3

3Blocked4

11Inside Box2

2Outside Box8

Passing

64%Possession36%

494Total Passes283

439Accurate Passes214

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls23

2Yellow Cards7

1Offsides1