Granad. Tenerife W 1–1 Eibar W: Result & Stats

Granad. Tenerife W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Eibar W

2/15/2025

Primera División Femenina · Round 19Campo de Fútbol de Adeje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W55%

×Draw24%

Eibar W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granad. Tenerife WExpected goals in this matchEibar W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.96

Granad. Tenerife W

1.70

Eibar W

0.96

Granad. Tenerife W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 77 away

1.63

creates per match

0.78

1.15

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W

1.63

Eibar W

0.78

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W

1.15

Eibar W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Eibar W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Eibar W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw

79%

Granad. Tenerife W or Eibar W

76%

Draw or Eibar W

45%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+

30%

Eibar W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals

82%

Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals

51%

Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals

24%

Eibar W 1+ goals

62%

Eibar W 2+ goals

25%

Eibar W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)

72%

Eibar W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 121 matches

Eibar W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.63 + Eibar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.70

Eibar W attack 0.78 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more

55%

level

24%

Eibar W scores more

21%

Granad. Tenerife W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Granad. Tenerife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff