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Gran Valencia vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018

Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
CANC
19:30
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
5/31/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 17Estadio Giuseppe Antonelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Gran Valencia29%
×Draw28%
Deportivo La Guaira43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gran Valencia
1.00
Deportivo La Guaira
1.27

Deportivo La Guaira creates 27% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 149 away

creates per match

Gran Valencia
0.81
Deportivo La Guaira
1.24

allows per match

Gran Valencia
1.29
Deportivo La Guaira
1.19

finishing

Gran Valencia+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Valencia ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gran Valencia or draw
57%
Gran Valencia or Deportivo La Guaira
72%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
71%

Winning margin

Gran Valencia wins by 2+
11%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gran Valencia 1+ goals
63%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
26%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
41%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Valencia at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Valencia attack 0.81 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.24 + Gran Valencia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gran Valencia scores more
29%
level
28%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
43%

Deportivo La Guaira at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gran Valencia face Deportivo La Guaira (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Gran Valencia hosting Deportivo La Guaira. Match starts May 31, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gran Valencia host Deportivo La Guaira at Estadio Giuseppe Antonelli.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.