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Deportivo La Guaira vs Gran Valencia — Primera División 2018

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
CANC
00:00
Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
10/18/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 36Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira53%
×Draw26%
Gran Valencia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.55
Gran Valencia
0.90

Deportivo La Guaira creates 72% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 23 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
1.49
Gran Valencia
0.91

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.89
Gran Valencia
1.61

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
Gran Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Gran Valencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
78%
Deportivo La Guaira or Gran Valencia
74%
Draw or Gran Valencia
47%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
27%
Gran Valencia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
20%
Gran Valencia 1+ goals
59%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
23%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
71%
Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Gran Valencia away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Gran Valencia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.55

Gran Valencia attack 0.91 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
53%
level
26%
Gran Valencia scores more
22%

Deportivo La Guaira at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo La Guaira host Gran Valencia

October 18, 2020: Deportivo La Guaira take on Gran Valencia in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo La Guaira host Gran Valencia at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.