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Gran Tarajal vs Unión Viera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Viera
Unión Viera
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 31Estadio Municipal De Gran Tarajal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Gran Tarajal53%
×Draw25%
Unión Viera22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gran Tarajal
1.64
Unión Viera
0.96

Gran Tarajal creates 71% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 60 away

creates per match

Gran Tarajal
1.34
Unión Viera
0.87

allows per match

Gran Tarajal
1.05
Unión Viera
1.93

finishing

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par
Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Tarajal ↓

Unión Viera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gran Tarajal or draw
78%
Gran Tarajal or Unión Viera
75%
Draw or Unión Viera
47%

Winning margin

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
29%
Unión Viera wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
81%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
49%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
23%
Unión Viera 1+ goals
62%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
25%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
71%
Unión Viera (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Tarajal at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 73 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Tarajal attack 1.34 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gran Tarajal scores more
53%
level
25%
Unión Viera scores more
22%

Gran Tarajal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gran Tarajal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Gran Tarajal 2–0 Unión Viera

Gran Tarajal beat Unión Viera 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal De Gran Tarajal in Gran Tarajal.