Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gran Tarajal vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 22Campo de Fútbol de Tuineje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Gran Tarajal35%
×Draw27%
Tenerife II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gran Tarajal
1.21
Tenerife II
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

creates per match

Gran Tarajal
1.34
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Gran Tarajal
1.05
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Tarajal ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gran Tarajal or draw
63%
Gran Tarajal or Tenerife II
73%
Draw or Tenerife II
65%

Winning margin

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
15%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
70%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
34%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
12%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
71%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
36%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
49%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Tarajal at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 73 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Tarajal attack 1.34 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gran Tarajal scores more
35%
level
27%
Tenerife II scores more
37%

Tenerife II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gran Tarajal 0 – 1 Tenerife II

Tenerife II beat Gran Tarajal 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Tuineje in Llano Florido, Las Palmas.