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Gran Tarajal vs Panadería Pulido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 22Estadio Municipal de Gran Tarajal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Gran Tarajal39%
×Draw27%
Panadería Pulido34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gran Tarajal
1.27
Panadería Pulido
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 94 away

creates per match

Gran Tarajal
1.34
Panadería Pulido
1.31

allows per match

Gran Tarajal
1.05
Panadería Pulido
1.21

finishing

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par
Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Tarajal ↓

Panadería Pulido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gran Tarajal or draw
66%
Gran Tarajal or Panadería Pulido
73%
Draw or Panadería Pulido
61%

Winning margin

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
17%
Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
72%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
36%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
14%
Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
69%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
33%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
53%
Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Tarajal at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 73 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Tarajal attack 1.34 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gran Tarajal scores more
39%
level
27%
Panadería Pulido scores more
34%

Gran Tarajal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gran Tarajal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gran Tarajal 1 – 1 Panadería Pulido

Gran Tarajal and Panadería Pulido drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Gran Tarajal in Gran Tarajal.