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Grama vs Sabadell II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Grama
Grama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sabadell II
Sabadell II
11/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 9Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Grama44%
×Draw25%
Sabadell II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grama
1.52
Sabadell II
1.24

Grama creates 23% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

creates per match

Grama
1.21
Sabadell II
1.47

allows per match

Grama
1.01
Sabadell II
1.82

finishing

Grama+0.00on par
Sabadell II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grama ↓

Sabadell II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grama or draw
69%
Grama or Sabadell II
75%
Draw or Sabadell II
56%

Winning margin

Grama wins by 2+
22%
Sabadell II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Grama 1+ goals
78%
Grama 2+ goals
45%
Grama 3+ goals
20%
Sabadell II 1+ goals
71%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
35%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Grama (draw refunded)
58%
Sabadell II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grama at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 95 matches

Sabadell II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grama attack 1.21 + Sabadell II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sabadell II attack 1.47 + Grama defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grama scores more
44%
level
25%
Sabadell II scores more
31%

Grama at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grama vs Sabadell II

Grama beat Sabadell II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma in Santa Coloma de Gramenet.