Grama 3–3 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Grama

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Rapitenca

Dani Martí 90'

M. Cevallos 82'

Roger García 38' (pen)

Gerard Vergé 71'

Chico 34', 20'

3/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 26Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Grama49%

×Draw26%

Rapitenca24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GramaExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.97

Grama

1.50

Rapitenca

0.97

Grama creates 55% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 32 away

1.21

creates per match

0.94

1.01

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Grama

1.21

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Grama

1.01

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grama+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grama ↓

Rapitenca →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Grama or draw

76%

Grama or Rapitenca

74%

Draw or Rapitenca

51%

Winning margin

Grama wins by 2+

25%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Grama 1+ goals

78%

Grama 2+ goals

44%

Grama 3+ goals

19%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

62%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

25%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Grama (draw refunded)

67%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Grama at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 95 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Grama attack 1.21 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Grama defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grama scores more

49%

level

26%

Rapitenca scores more

24%

Grama at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Eric Alarcón← Daniel Ekedo

20'

Chico

34'

Chico

38'

Roger GarcíaPenalty

46'

David Adan← Marc Rodriguez

69'

M. Cevallos← David Acedo

69'

Ángel González← Alex Montalban

71'

Gerard Vergé

73'

Peke← Paki

75'

Guillem Jiménez← Adrián Gimeno

75'

Juan Sosa← Guillem Pujol

80'

Joan Sancho← O. Ouhdadi

82'

M. Cevallos

90'

Dani Martí

Grama

Rapitenca

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Manu Peláez

46'▲David Adan←▼Marc Rodriguez

69'▲M. Cevallos←▼David Acedo

69'▲Ángel González←▼Alex Montalban

75'▲Guillem Jiménez←▼Adrián Gimeno

75'▲Juan Sosa←▼Guillem Pujol

Grama substitutes

AdanCevallosGonzálezJiménezSosa

Manager: Josep Aliau

12'▲Eric Alarcón←▼Daniel Ekedo

73'▲Peke←▼Paki

80'▲Joan Sancho←▼O. Ouhdadi

Rapitenca substitutes

AlarcónPekeSancho

Match Recap: Grama vs Rapitenca

Grama and Rapitenca drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 26, 2023.

Goals: Chico (20', 34'), Roger García (38' pen), Gerard Vergé (71'), M. Cevallos (82'), Dani Martí (90').

The match was played at Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma in Santa Coloma de Gramenet.

Grama vs Rapitenca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Grama vs Rapitenca