Grama 3–1 Montañesa: Result & Stats

Grama

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Montañesa

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Grama48%

×Draw28%

Montañesa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GramaExpected goals in this matchMontañesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.84

Grama

1.34

Montañesa

0.84

Grama creates 60% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 81 away

1.21

creates per match

0.68

1.01

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Grama

1.21

Montañesa

0.68

allows per match

Grama

1.01

Montañesa

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grama+0.00on par

Montañesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grama ↓

Montañesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Grama or draw

77%

Grama or Montañesa

72%

Draw or Montañesa

52%

Winning margin

Grama wins by 2+

23%

Montañesa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grama 1+ goals

74%

Grama 2+ goals

39%

Grama 3+ goals

15%

Montañesa 1+ goals

57%

Montañesa 2+ goals

21%

Montañesa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Grama (draw refunded)

67%

Montañesa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grama at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 95 matches

Montañesa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grama attack 1.21 + Montañesa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Montañesa attack 0.68 + Grama defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Grama scores more

48%

level

28%

Montañesa scores more

23%

Grama at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Grama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff