Grama vs Badalona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 49+ matches
Grama40%
Badalona II31%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Grama creates 17% more chances
Season form · 95 home / 49 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Grama ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Grama at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 95 matches
Badalona II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Grama attack 1.21 + Badalona II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24
Badalona II attack 1.12 + Grama defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Grama at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Grama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Badalona
Manresa
Cornellà
Vilanova
L'HospitaletGrama
Peralada
L'Escala
Tona
Europa II
Montañesa
Mollerussa
San Cristóbal
Vilassar Mar
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Can Vidalet
Vic
Lleida EsportiuIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Grama host Badalona II on Sunday, 1 December 2024 at 10:45. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019/2020 season.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Grama 4–1 Badalona II
Grama beat Badalona II 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 1, 2024.
Goals: Toni Larrosa (18'), Airan Ruvira (38'), Roger García (56'), Erik Rafael (67'), Iker Bermúdez (90+4' o.g.).
The match was played at Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma in Santa Coloma de Gramenet.