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Grafičar vs Sloboda Uzice — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
8/3/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 1Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Grafičar58%
×Draw24%
Sloboda Uzice18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
1.66
Sloboda Uzice
0.80

Grafičar creates 107% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 76 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
Sloboda Uzice
0.62

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
Sloboda Uzice
1.57

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
82%
Grafičar or Sloboda Uzice
76%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
42%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
32%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
81%
Grafičar 2+ goals
49%
Grafičar 3+ goals
23%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
55%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
19%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
76%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Grafičar scores more
58%
level
24%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
18%

Grafičar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grafičar vs Sloboda Uzice

Grafičar beat Sloboda Uzice 3-1 in Prva Liga on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava 4 in Beograd.