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Grafičar vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
10/19/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 15Stadion Grafičara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Grafičar59%
×Draw23%
Sindjelic Beograd18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
1.77
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

Grafičar creates 106% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 34 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
82%
Grafičar or Sindjelic Beograd
77%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
41%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
33%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
83%
Grafičar 2+ goals
53%
Grafičar 3+ goals
26%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
58%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
21%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
77%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Grafičar scores more
59%
level
23%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
18%

Grafičar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grafičar vs Sindjelic Beograd

Grafičar beat Sindjelic Beograd 1-0 in Prva Liga on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Grafičara in Beograd.