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Grafičar vs Radnički Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
4/1/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 27Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Grafičar61%
×Draw22%
Radnički Novi Beograd17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
1.86
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.87

Grafičar creates 114% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 38 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.76

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.97

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
83%
Grafičar or Radnički Novi Beograd
78%
Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd
39%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
36%
Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
84%
Grafičar 2+ goals
55%
Grafičar 3+ goals
28%
Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
58%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
22%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
78%
Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.86

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.76 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Grafičar scores more
61%
level
22%
Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
17%

Grafičar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Grafičar 0–1 Radnički Novi Beograd

Radnički Novi Beograd beat Grafičar 1-0 in Prva Liga on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava in Beograd.