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Grafičar vs RAD — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
RAD
RAD
5/8/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 5Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Grafičar56%
×Draw24%
RAD19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
1.67
RAD
0.87

Grafičar creates 92% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 37 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
RAD
0.76

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
RAD
1.59

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
81%
Grafičar or RAD
76%
Draw or RAD
44%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
31%
RAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
81%
Grafičar 2+ goals
50%
Grafičar 3+ goals
23%
RAD 1+ goals
58%
RAD 2+ goals
22%
RAD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
74%
RAD (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

RAD away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + RAD defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.67

RAD attack 0.76 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Grafičar scores more
56%
level
24%
RAD scores more
19%

Grafičar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grafičar 4 – 0 RAD

Grafičar beat RAD 4-0 in Prva Liga on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava in Beograd.