Grafičar 2–1 FAP: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Grafičar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FAP

V. Vukojevic 90'

D. Lazic 70'

M. Mirosavljev 24'

2/23/2026

Prva Liga · Round 24Stadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Grafičar56%

×Draw23%

FAP21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrafičarExpected goals in this matchFAP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.02

Grafičar

1.82

FAP

1.02

Grafičar creates 78% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 20 away

1.75

creates per match

1.05

0.98

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Grafičar

1.75

FAP

1.05

allows per match

Grafičar

0.98

FAP

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par

FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

FAP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw

79%

Grafičar or FAP

77%

Draw or FAP

44%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+

32%

FAP wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals

84%

Grafičar 2+ goals

54%

Grafičar 3+ goals

27%

FAP 1+ goals

64%

FAP 2+ goals

27%

FAP 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)

73%

FAP (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

FAP away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + FAP defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

FAP attack 1.05 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Grafičar scores more

56%

level

23%

FAP scores more

21%

Grafičar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Jevremovic

21'

I. Lakicevic← S. Velickovic

24'

M. Mirosavljev

33'

A. Markovic

46'

V. Ilic← J. Jevremovic

62'

N. Obucina← A. Markovic

62'

P. Ristic← M. Susnjar

68'

B. Vukotic

70'

G. Gerzel← B. Antwi

70'

D. Lazic

71'

M. Zivanovic← D. Rankovic

71'

N. Stojiljkovic← A. Damjanovic

79'

S. Prodanovic← N. Tasic

79'

D. Danicic← M. Andjelkovic

85'

90+10'

90+6'

90'

Grafičar

FAP

12

▼

3

4

6

8

▼

Antwi

11

▼

Markovic

13

▼

Andjelkov

20

▼

Susnjar

26

⚽

29

33

1

6

7

⚽

Vukojevic

9

▼

Damjanovi

10

▼

Rankovic

11

▼

Zaric

14

Srnic

15

⚽

Lazic

18

▼

Velickovi

27

Gudelj

60

▼

Jevremovi

Manager: Marko Nedjic

21'▲I. Lakicevic←▼S. Velickovic

46'▲V. Ilic←▼J. Jevremovic

71'▲M. Zivanovic←▼D. Rankovic

71'▲N. Stojiljkovic←▼A. Damjanovic

90+6'▲J. Tucker←▼L. Zaric

Grafičar substitutes

92Vojvodic3Maric5Vukadinovic8Nikolic12Zivanovic19Stojiljkovic20Ilic33Lakicevic44Vidic78Tucker99Djordjevic

Manager: Zoran Kostic

62'▲N. Obucina←▼A. Markovic

62'▲P. Ristic←▼M. Susnjar

70'▲G. Gerzel←▼B. Antwi

79'▲S. Prodanovic←▼N. Tasic

79'▲D. Danicic←▼M. Andjelkovic

FAP substitutes

21Prodanovic2Susic7Obucina9Ristic10Gerzel14Otasevic15Tesanovic17Soskic19Lazarevic24Wypart55Danicic

Prva Liga: Grafičar 2–1 FAP

Grafičar beat FAP 2-1 in Prva Liga on February 23, 2026.

Goals: M. Mirosavljev (24'), D. Lazic (70'), V. Vukojevic (90').

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.

Grafičar vs FAP — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Prva Liga: Grafičar 2–1 FAP