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Grafičar vs Dubočica — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dubočica
Dubočica
5/11/2026Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Group - 36Stadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Grafičar55%
×Draw25%
Dubočica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
1.63
Dubočica
0.89

Grafičar creates 83% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 73 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
Dubočica
0.79

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
Dubočica
1.51

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
79%
Grafičar or Dubočica
75%
Draw or Dubočica
45%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
29%
Dubočica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
80%
Grafičar 2+ goals
48%
Grafičar 3+ goals
22%
Dubočica 1+ goals
59%
Dubočica 2+ goals
22%
Dubočica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
73%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

Dubočica away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + Dubočica defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dubočica attack 0.79 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Grafičar scores more
55%
level
25%
Dubočica scores more
21%

Grafičar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Grafičar 3–1 Dubočica

Grafičar beat Dubočica 3-1 in Prva Liga on May 11, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.