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Gradina vs Tuzla City — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gradina
Gradina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
10/16/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 8Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gradina64%
×Draw21%
Tuzla City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gradina
1.94
Tuzla City
0.82

Gradina creates 137% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 27 away

creates per match

Gradina
1.68
Tuzla City
0.48

allows per match

Gradina
1.17
Tuzla City
2.19

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gradina or draw
85%
Gradina or Tuzla City
79%
Draw or Tuzla City
36%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+
38%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals
86%
Gradina 2+ goals
58%
Gradina 3+ goals
30%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
56%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
20%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)
81%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.94

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gradina scores more
64%
level
21%
Tuzla City scores more
15%

Gradina at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gradina vs Tuzla City

Gradina beat Tuzla City 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Srebrenik.