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Gradina vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gradina
Gradina
FT
0 – 1
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
3/16/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gradina47%
×Draw25%
TOŠK Tešanj28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gradina
1.61
TOŠK Tešanj
1.19

Gradina creates 35% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 95 away

creates per match

Gradina
1.68
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Gradina
1.17
TOŠK Tešanj
1.54

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gradina or draw
72%
Gradina or TOŠK Tešanj
75%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
53%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+
24%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals
80%
Gradina 2+ goals
48%
Gradina 3+ goals
22%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
70%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
33%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)
63%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gradina scores more
47%
level
25%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
28%

Gradina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Gradina 0–1 TOŠK Tešanj

TOŠK Tešanj beat Gradina 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Srebrenik.