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Gradina vs Stupčanica Olovo — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gradina
Gradina
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
5/4/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 24Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Gradina40%
×Draw27%
Stupčanica Olovo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gradina
1.35
Stupčanica Olovo
1.20

Gradina creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 57 away

creates per match

Gradina
1.68
Stupčanica Olovo
1.23

allows per match

Gradina
1.17
Stupčanica Olovo
1.02

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par
Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gradina or draw
67%
Gradina or Stupčanica Olovo
73%
Draw or Stupčanica Olovo
60%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+
18%
Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals
74%
Gradina 2+ goals
39%
Gradina 3+ goals
15%
Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
70%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
34%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)
55%
Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gradina scores more
40%
level
27%
Stupčanica Olovo scores more
33%

Gradina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gradina vs Stupčanica Olovo

Stupčanica Olovo beat Gradina 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Srebrenik.