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Gradina vs Rudar Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gradina
Gradina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
9/10/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gradina51%
×Draw25%
Rudar Kakanj24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gradina
1.62
Rudar Kakanj
1.03

Gradina creates 57% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 68 away

creates per match

Gradina
1.68
Rudar Kakanj
0.90

allows per match

Gradina
1.17
Rudar Kakanj
1.56

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par
Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Rudar Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gradina or draw
76%
Gradina or Rudar Kakanj
75%
Draw or Rudar Kakanj
49%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+
27%
Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals
80%
Gradina 2+ goals
48%
Gradina 3+ goals
22%
Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
64%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
28%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)
68%
Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.90 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gradina scores more
51%
level
25%
Rudar Kakanj scores more
24%

Gradina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gradina vs Rudar Kakanj

Gradina beat Rudar Kakanj 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Srebrenik.