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Gradina vs Orašje — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gradina
Gradina
FT
3 – 1
Orašje
Orašje
8/27/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gradina57%
×Draw22%
Orašje21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gradina
1.92
Orašje
1.06

Gradina creates 81% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 46 away

creates per match

Gradina
1.68
Orašje
0.96

allows per match

Gradina
1.17
Orašje
2.17

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par
Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Orašje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gradina or draw
79%
Gradina or Orašje
78%
Draw or Orašje
43%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+
34%
Orašje wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals
85%
Gradina 2+ goals
57%
Gradina 3+ goals
30%
Orašje 1+ goals
65%
Orašje 2+ goals
29%
Orašje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)
74%
Orašje (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Orašje attack 0.96 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gradina scores more
57%
level
22%
Orašje scores more
21%

Gradina at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Gradina 3–1 Orašje

Gradina beat Orašje 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Srebrenik.