Gradina 0–0 Jedinstvo Bihać: Result & Stats

Gradina

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jedinstvo Bihać

3/8/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gradina58%

×Draw23%

Jedinstvo Bihać19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GradinaExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Bihać

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.93

Gradina

1.82

Jedinstvo Bihać

0.93

Gradina creates 96% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 95 away

1.68

creates per match

0.69

1.17

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Gradina

1.68

Jedinstvo Bihać

0.69

allows per match

Gradina

1.17

Jedinstvo Bihać

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Jedinstvo Bihać →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gradina or draw

81%

Gradina or Jedinstvo Bihać

77%

Draw or Jedinstvo Bihać

42%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+

33%

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals

84%

Gradina 2+ goals

54%

Gradina 3+ goals

27%

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals

61%

Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals

24%

Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)

75%

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Jedinstvo Bihać away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.97 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.82

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 0.69 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gradina scores more

58%

level

23%

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more

19%

Gradina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff