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Gradina vs Igman Konjic — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gradina
Gradina
FT
2 – 0
Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
11/6/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gradina47%
×Draw25%
Igman Konjic27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gradina
1.54
Igman Konjic
1.10

Gradina creates 40% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 51 away

creates per match

Gradina
1.68
Igman Konjic
1.04

allows per match

Gradina
1.17
Igman Konjic
1.41

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par
Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Igman Konjic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gradina or draw
73%
Gradina or Igman Konjic
75%
Draw or Igman Konjic
53%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+
24%
Igman Konjic wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals
79%
Gradina 2+ goals
45%
Gradina 3+ goals
20%
Igman Konjic 1+ goals
67%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
30%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)
64%
Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Igman Konjic defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Igman Konjic attack 1.04 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gradina scores more
47%
level
25%
Igman Konjic scores more
27%

Gradina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gradina vs Igman Konjic

Gradina beat Igman Konjic 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Srebrenik.