Gradina 5–1 Gornji Rahić: Result & Stats

Gradina

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gornji Rahić

9/21/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gradina58%

×Draw21%

Gornji Rahić21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GradinaExpected goals in this matchGornji Rahić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.19

Gradina

2.08

Gornji Rahić

1.19

Gradina creates 75% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 29 away

1.68

creates per match

1.21

1.17

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Gradina

1.68

Gornji Rahić

1.21

allows per match

Gradina

1.17

Gornji Rahić

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Gornji Rahić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Gradina or draw

79%

Gradina or Gornji Rahić

79%

Draw or Gornji Rahić

42%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+

35%

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals

87%

Gradina 2+ goals

61%

Gradina 3+ goals

34%

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals

70%

Gornji Rahić 2+ goals

33%

Gornji Rahić 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)

73%

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gradina scores more

58%

level

21%

Gornji Rahić scores more

21%

Gradina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff