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Gradina vs Budućnost Banovići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gradina
Gradina
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
11/2/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 12Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gradina51%
×Draw24%
Budućnost Banovići25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gradina
1.70
Budućnost Banovići
1.12

Gradina creates 52% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 95 away

creates per match

Gradina
1.68
Budućnost Banovići
1.07

allows per match

Gradina
1.17
Budućnost Banovići
1.72

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par
Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Budućnost Banovići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gradina or draw
75%
Gradina or Budućnost Banovići
76%
Draw or Budućnost Banovići
49%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+
27%
Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals
82%
Gradina 2+ goals
51%
Gradina 3+ goals
24%
Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
67%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
31%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)
67%
Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.70

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gradina scores more
51%
level
24%
Budućnost Banovići scores more
25%

Gradina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gradina vs Budućnost Banovići

Gradina beat Budućnost Banovići 4-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Srebrenik.