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GPA vs Samger — GFA League 2020

GPA
GPA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Samger
Samger
2/14/2022GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

GPA42%
×Draw33%
Samger25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GPA
1.02
Samger
0.72

GPA creates 42% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 60 away

creates per match

GPA
0.95
Samger
0.70

allows per match

GPA
0.74
Samger
1.10

finishing

GPA+0.00on par
Samger+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GPA ↓

Samger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

GPA or draw
75%
GPA or Samger
67%
Draw or Samger
58%

Winning margin

GPA wins by 2+
16%
Samger wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GPA 1+ goals
64%
GPA 2+ goals
27%
GPA 3+ goals
8%
Samger 1+ goals
51%
Samger 2+ goals
16%
Samger 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

GPA (draw refunded)
62%
Samger (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GPA at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Samger away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GPA attack 0.95 + Samger defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Samger attack 0.70 + GPA defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

GPA scores more
42%
level
33%
Samger scores more
25%

GPA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "GPA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GPA vs Samger

Samger beat GPA 1-0 in GFA League on February 14, 2022.