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GPA vs Real de Banjul — GFA League 2020

GPA
GPA
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Real de Banjul
Real de Banjul
6/15/2022GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

GPA30%
×Draw33%
Real de Banjul37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GPA
0.81
Real de Banjul
0.94

Real de Banjul creates 16% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 88 away

creates per match

GPA
0.95
Real de Banjul
1.15

allows per match

GPA
0.74
Real de Banjul
0.68

finishing

GPA+0.00on par
Real de Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GPA ↓

Real de Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

GPA or draw
63%
GPA or Real de Banjul
67%
Draw or Real de Banjul
70%

Winning margin

GPA wins by 2+
10%
Real de Banjul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

GPA 1+ goals
56%
GPA 2+ goals
19%
GPA 3+ goals
5%
Real de Banjul 1+ goals
61%
Real de Banjul 2+ goals
24%
Real de Banjul 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GPA (draw refunded)
45%
Real de Banjul (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GPA at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Real de Banjul away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GPA attack 0.95 + Real de Banjul defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Real de Banjul attack 1.15 + GPA defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

GPA scores more
30%
level
33%
Real de Banjul scores more
37%

Real de Banjul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real de Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GPA vs Real de Banjul

Real de Banjul beat GPA 6-0 in GFA League on June 15, 2022.