GPA 1–0 Dutch Lions: Result & Stats | GFA League

GPA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dutch Lions

J. Jarju 86'

6/6/2026

GFA League · Round 27Serrekunda East Mini-Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

GPA44%

×Draw32%

Dutch Lions24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GPAExpected goals in this matchDutch Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.72

GPA

1.09

Dutch Lions

0.72

GPA creates 51% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 30 away

0.95

creates per match

0.70

0.74

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

GPA

0.95

Dutch Lions

0.70

allows per match

GPA

0.74

Dutch Lions

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GPA+0.00on par

Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GPA ↓

Dutch Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

GPA or draw

76%

GPA or Dutch Lions

68%

Draw or Dutch Lions

56%

Winning margin

GPA wins by 2+

18%

Dutch Lions wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

GPA 1+ goals

66%

GPA 2+ goals

30%

GPA 3+ goals

10%

Dutch Lions 1+ goals

51%

Dutch Lions 2+ goals

16%

Dutch Lions 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

GPA (draw refunded)

65%

Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GPA at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GPA attack 0.95 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + GPA defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GPA scores more

44%

level

32%

Dutch Lions scores more

24%

GPA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GPA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

86'

J. Jarju

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff