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GPA vs Brikama United — GFA League 2020

GPA
GPA
FT
1 – 1
Brikama United
Brikama United
5/22/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

GPA38%
×Draw32%
Brikama United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GPA
1.01
Brikama United
0.85

GPA creates 19% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 89 away

creates per match

GPA
0.95
Brikama United
0.97

allows per match

GPA
0.74
Brikama United
1.07

finishing

GPA+0.00on par
Brikama United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GPA ↓

Brikama United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

GPA or draw
70%
GPA or Brikama United
68%
Draw or Brikama United
62%

Winning margin

GPA wins by 2+
15%
Brikama United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

GPA 1+ goals
64%
GPA 2+ goals
27%
GPA 3+ goals
8%
Brikama United 1+ goals
57%
Brikama United 2+ goals
21%
Brikama United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

GPA (draw refunded)
56%
Brikama United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GPA at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Brikama United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GPA attack 0.95 + Brikama United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Brikama United attack 0.97 + GPA defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

GPA scores more
38%
level
32%
Brikama United scores more
30%

GPA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "GPA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: GPA 1–1 Brikama United

GPA and Brikama United drew 1-1 in GFA League on May 22, 2021.