Göztepe vs Trabzonspor: Preview & Prediction

Göztepe

Preview

18:00

Trabzonspor

11/29/2026

League #203 · Round 13

Big match

54%

Göztepe

model favours

54%23%24%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

59%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Göztepe54%

×Draw23%

Trabzonspor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchTrabzonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.18

Göztepe

1.88

Trabzonspor

1.18

Göztepe creates 59% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

2.07

creates per match

1.47

0.89

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Göztepe

2.07

Trabzonspor

1.47

allows per match

Göztepe

0.89

Trabzonspor

1.70

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

Göztepe-0.40scores less

Trabzonspor+0.53scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Trabzonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

76%

Göztepe or Trabzonspor

77%

Draw or Trabzonspor

46%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

31%

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

85%

Göztepe 2+ goals

56%

Göztepe 3+ goals

29%

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

69%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

33%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

69%

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.89 · 12 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.70 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.07 + Trabzonspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.88

Trabzonspor attack 1.47 + Göztepe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Göztepe scores more

54%

level

23%

Trabzonspor scores more

24%

Göztepe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Style contrast — Göztepe play Direct / counter-attacking, Trabzonspor Possession-dominant
Göztepe fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.8 expected)
Trabzonspor outscore their xG (1.9 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.