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Göztepe vs Trabzonspor — League #203 2026

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
D. Kadah 71' (pen)
Kadu 90' (OG)
A. Parmak 73'
H. Rodallega 27'
2/22/2019League #203League #203 · Round 23Bornova Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Göztepe53%
×Draw23%
Trabzonspor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.83
Trabzonspor
1.17

Göztepe creates 56% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

Göztepe
1.97
Trabzonspor
1.47

allows per match

Göztepe
0.86
Trabzonspor
1.70

finishing

Göztepe-0.33scores less
Trabzonspor+0.53scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Trabzonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
76%
Göztepe or Trabzonspor
77%
Draw or Trabzonspor
47%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
30%
Trabzonspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
84%
Göztepe 2+ goals
54%
Göztepe 3+ goals
28%
Trabzonspor 1+ goals
69%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
33%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
68%
Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.70 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.97 + Trabzonspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.83

Trabzonspor attack 1.47 + Göztepe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Göztepe scores more
53%
level
23%
Trabzonspor scores more
24%

Göztepe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. RodallegaTrabzonsporTrabzonspor · F
8.1

Match Events

22'
Berkan Emir
27'
H. Rodallega
46'
D. Kadah← C. Borges
63'
Majid Hosseini
68'
H. Akbunar← B. Emir
71'
D. KadahPenalty
73'
A. Parmak↳ A. Nwakaeme
74'
N. Ghilas← C. Jerome
86'
B. Artarslan← C. Ekuban
89'
Yasin Öztekin
90+2'
M. Akpınar← Y. Yazıcı
90+4'
A. Karnapoğlu← A. Parmak
90'
KaduOwn goal

Possession

55%Göztepe

Shots

8Göztepe

Pass accuracy

50%Göztepe

Statistics

GöztepeTrabzonspor
Overview
55%Possession45%
8Total Shots12
10Corners3
13Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots12
1On Target6
5Off Target5
2Blocked1
2Inside Box5
6Outside Box7
Passing
55%Possession45%
479Total Passes400
382Accurate Passes321
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Trabzonspor

Trabzonspor beat Göztepe 3-1 in League #203 on February 22, 2019.

Goals: H. Rodallega (27'), D. Kadah (71' pen), A. Parmak (73'), Kadu (90' o.g.).

Göztepe controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Bornova Stadium in Izmir.