Göztepe 3–2 Trabzonspor: Result & Stats

Göztepe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Trabzonspor

A. Jahović 67'

N. Ghilas 44' (pen)

T. Bingöl 26'

H. Rodallega 45+3'

J. Kucka 9'

8/26/2017

League #203 · Round 3Bornova Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Göztepe53%

×Draw23%

Trabzonspor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchTrabzonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.17

Göztepe

1.83

Trabzonspor

1.17

Göztepe creates 56% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.97

creates per match

1.47

0.86

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Göztepe

1.97

Trabzonspor

1.47

allows per match

Göztepe

0.86

Trabzonspor

1.70

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

Göztepe-0.33scores less

Trabzonspor+0.53scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Trabzonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

76%

Göztepe or Trabzonspor

77%

Draw or Trabzonspor

47%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

30%

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

84%

Göztepe 2+ goals

54%

Göztepe 3+ goals

28%

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

69%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

33%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

68%

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.70 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.97 + Trabzonspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.83

Trabzonspor attack 1.47 + Göztepe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Göztepe scores more

53%

level

23%

Trabzonspor scores more

24%

Göztepe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

75

T. Bingöl

Göztepe · M

7.8

Match Events

9'

J. Kucka↳ O. Şahan

26'

T. Bingöl↳ E. Scarione

32'

Juraj Kucka

43'

Onur Kıvrak

44'

N. GhilasPenalty

45'

45'

45+3'

56'

60'

64'

H. Çinemre← M. Peybernes

67'

A. Jahović

74'

A. Ngando← E. Scarione

74'

D. N'Doye← U. Demirok

80'

H. Akbunar← N. Ghilas

86'

Halil Akbunar

88'

A. Ömür← J. Kucka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GöztepeTrabzonspor

Overview

39%Possession61%

18Total Shots15

3Corners4

18Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots15

8On Target3

5Off Target9

5Blocked3

8Inside Box12

10Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

339Total Passes504

227Accurate Passes386

67%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

League #203: Göztepe 3–2 Trabzonspor

Göztepe beat Trabzonspor 3-2 in League #203 on August 26, 2017.

Goals: J. Kucka (9'), T. Bingöl (26'), N. Ghilas (44' pen), H. Rodallega (45+3'), A. Jahović (67').

Trabzonspor controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 18.

The match was played at Bornova Stadyumu in Izmir.

Göztepe vs Trabzonspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Göztepe 3–2 Trabzonspor