Göztepe 3–3 Rizespor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Göztepe

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Rizespor

İ. Köybaşı 57', 24'

E. Ortakaya 19'

0 K. Altınay 90+10' (pen)

A. Koç 86'

J. Uzuegbunam 43'

5/16/2023

1. Lig · Round 37Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Göztepe42%

×Draw27%

Rizespor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchRizespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.07

Göztepe

1.32

Rizespor

1.07

Göztepe creates 23% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 18 away

1.65

creates per match

1.44

0.70

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Göztepe

1.65

Rizespor

1.44

allows per match

Göztepe

0.70

Rizespor

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par

Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Rizespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

70%

Göztepe or Rizespor

73%

Draw or Rizespor

58%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

19%

Rizespor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

73%

Göztepe 2+ goals

38%

Göztepe 3+ goals

15%

Rizespor 1+ goals

66%

Rizespor 2+ goals

29%

Rizespor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

58%

Rizespor (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Rizespor away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.65 + Rizespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rizespor attack 1.44 + Göztepe defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Göztepe scores more

42%

level

27%

Rizespor scores more

30%

Göztepe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

İ. Köybaşı

Göztepe · D

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Romal Palmer

19'

E. Ortakaya

21'

Emir OrtakayaGoal confirmed

24'

İ. Köybaşı↳ T. Çamdal

35'

43'

46'

48'

57'

İ. Köybaşı↳ M. Kvasina

61'

M. Pala← O. Ceylan

61'

K. Kanatsızkuş← J. Uzuegbunam

61'

A. Koç← E. Topçu

64'

A. Traoré← M. Ngalina

72'

H. Osman← I. Olawoyin

74'

77'

79'

79'

84'

84'

86'

90+9'

90+7'

90+3'

90+10'

90+7'

90+7'

90+6'

Haqi OsmanPenalty confirmed

90+10'

0 K. AltınayPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GöztepeRizespor

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots16

4Corners4

16Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots16

6On Target8

3Off Target6

1Blocked2

8Inside Box10

2Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

295Total Passes388

199Accurate Passes298

67%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls6

7Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

1. Lig: Göztepe 3–3 Rizespor

Göztepe and Rizespor drew 3-3 in 1. Lig on May 16, 2023.

Goals: E. Ortakaya (19'), İ. Köybaşı (24', 57'), J. Uzuegbunam (43'), A. Koç (86'), 0 K. Altınay (90+10' pen).

Rizespor controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.

Göztepe vs Rizespor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: Göztepe 3–3 Rizespor