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Göztepe vs Kayserispor — League #203 2026

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kayserispor
Kayserispor
F. Di Santo 45'
O. Kemen 26'
E. Başsan 8'
4/9/2022League #203League #203 · Round 32Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Göztepe55%
×Draw24%
Kayserispor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.70
Kayserispor
0.93

Göztepe creates 83% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Göztepe
1.97
Kayserispor
1.00

allows per match

Göztepe
0.86
Kayserispor
1.43

finishing

Göztepe-0.33scores less
Kayserispor-0.25scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Kayserispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
79%
Göztepe or Kayserispor
76%
Draw or Kayserispor
45%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
31%
Kayserispor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
82%
Göztepe 2+ goals
51%
Göztepe 3+ goals
24%
Kayserispor 1+ goals
61%
Kayserispor 2+ goals
24%
Kayserispor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
73%
Kayserispor (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Kayserispor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.97 + Kayserispor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kayserispor attack 1.00 + Göztepe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Göztepe scores more
55%
level
24%
Kayserispor scores more
21%

Göztepe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
F. Di SantoGöztepeGöztepe · F
8.2

Match Events

8'
E. Başsan
24'
François Moubandje
26'
O. Kemen
28'
Olivier Kemen
45'
F. Di Santo
55'
Miguel Cardoso← E. Başsan
62'
S. Aydoğdu← Y. Kayan
65'
Gustavo Campanharo
67'
İ. Parlak← M. Pektemek
73'
A. Çankaya← F. Moubandje
73'
A. Jahović← K. Alıcı
90'
Franco Di SantoPenalty cancelled
90+1'
A. Parmak← Gustavo Campanharo

Possession

71%Göztepe

Shots

19Göztepe

Pass accuracy

56%Göztepe

Statistics

GöztepeKayserispor
Overview
71%Possession29%
19Total Shots8
6Corners4
17Fouls8
Shots
19Total Shots8
7On Target3
10Off Target3
2Blocked2
13Inside Box7
6Outside Box1
Passing
71%Possession29%
619Total Passes252
536Accurate Passes170
87%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
17Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides6

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Kayserispor

Kayserispor beat Göztepe 2-1 in League #203 on April 9, 2022.

Goals: E. Başsan (8'), O. Kemen (26'), F. Di Santo (45').

Göztepe controlled possession (71%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.