Göztepe 4–0 Kayserispor: Result & Stats

Göztepe

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Kayserispor

S. Napoleoni 50', 45'

S. Aydoğdu 42'

A. Öztürk 7'

10/5/2019

League #203 · Round 7Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Göztepe55%

×Draw24%

Kayserispor21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchKayserispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.93

Göztepe

1.70

Kayserispor

0.93

Göztepe creates 83% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.97

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Göztepe

1.97

Kayserispor

1.00

allows per match

Göztepe

0.86

Kayserispor

1.43

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Göztepe-0.33scores less

Kayserispor-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Kayserispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

79%

Göztepe or Kayserispor

76%

Draw or Kayserispor

45%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

31%

Kayserispor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

82%

Göztepe 2+ goals

51%

Göztepe 3+ goals

24%

Kayserispor 1+ goals

61%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

24%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

73%

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Kayserispor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.97 + Kayserispor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kayserispor attack 1.00 + Göztepe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Göztepe scores more

55%

level

24%

Kayserispor scores more

21%

Göztepe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

S. Aydoğdu

Göztepe · M

8.4

Match Events

7'

A. Öztürk↳ S. Aydoğdu

29'

Ben Rienstra

41'

Benoît Poulain

42'

S. Aydoğdu

45'

S. Napoleoni↳ S. Gürler

46'

Castro← Marcio Mossoró

46'

Adryan← U. Bulut

50'

S. Napoleoni↳ B. Emir

55'

Z. Alkurt← N. Korkmaz

64'

H. Akbunar← S. Aydoğdu

74'

Titi

85'

K. Kesgin← S. Gürler

86'

E. Demir← P. Ntep

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GöztepeKayserispor

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots8

6Corners5

13Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots8

8On Target3

6Off Target4

2Blocked1

11Inside Box2

5Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

324Total Passes442

260Accurate Passes376

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2