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Göztepe vs Karaköprü Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
10/19/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Göztepe74%
×Draw16%
Karaköprü Belediyespor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
2.57
Karaköprü Belediyespor
0.85

Göztepe creates 202% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Göztepe
2.54
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.40

allows per match

Göztepe
0.31
Karaköprü Belediyespor
2.60

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
90%
Göztepe or Karaköprü Belediyespor
84%
Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor
26%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
52%
Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
92%
Göztepe 2+ goals
72%
Göztepe 3+ goals
47%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
57%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
21%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
88%
Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.54 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.57

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.40 + Göztepe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Göztepe scores more
74%
level
16%
Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
10%

Göztepe at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Karaköprü Belediyespor

Göztepe and Karaköprü Belediyespor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.