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Göztepe vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
8/21/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 2Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Göztepe47%
×Draw28%
Erzurumspor FK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.34
Erzurumspor FK
0.90

Göztepe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Göztepe
1.63
Erzurumspor FK
1.16

allows per match

Göztepe
0.63
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
75%
Göztepe or Erzurumspor FK
72%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
53%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
22%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
74%
Göztepe 2+ goals
39%
Göztepe 3+ goals
15%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
59%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
23%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
65%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.63 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Göztepe defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Göztepe scores more
47%
level
28%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
25%

Göztepe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Erzurumspor FK

Göztepe and Erzurumspor FK drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.