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Göztepe vs Çengelköyspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Çengelköyspor
Çengelköyspor
11/1/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th Roundİzmir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Göztepe82%
×Draw14%
Çengelköyspor4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
2.27
Çengelköyspor
0.32

Göztepe creates 609% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Göztepe
2.54
Çengelköyspor
0.33

allows per match

Göztepe
0.31
Çengelköyspor
2.00

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Çengelköyspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Çengelköyspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
96%
Göztepe or Çengelköyspor
86%
Draw or Çengelköyspor
18%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
58%
Çengelköyspor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
90%
Göztepe 2+ goals
66%
Göztepe 3+ goals
39%
Çengelköyspor 1+ goals
27%
Çengelköyspor 2+ goals
4%
Çengelköyspor 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
95%
Çengelköyspor (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Çengelköyspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.54 + Çengelköyspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Çengelköyspor attack 0.33 + Göztepe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Göztepe scores more
82%
level
14%
Çengelköyspor scores more
4%

Göztepe at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Göztepe 4–0 Çengelköyspor

Göztepe beat Çengelköyspor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 1, 2018.

The match was played at İzmir Atatürk Stadyumu in İzmir.