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Göztepe vs Bursaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
AET
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Bursaspor
Bursaspor
12/15/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Göztepe62%
×Draw22%
Bursaspor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.90
Bursaspor
0.84

Göztepe creates 126% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Göztepe
2.54
Bursaspor
1.38

allows per match

Göztepe
0.31
Bursaspor
1.25

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Bursaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
84%
Göztepe or Bursaspor
78%
Draw or Bursaspor
38%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
37%
Bursaspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
85%
Göztepe 2+ goals
56%
Göztepe 3+ goals
29%
Bursaspor 1+ goals
57%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
21%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
80%
Bursaspor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.54 + Bursaspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bursaspor attack 1.38 + Göztepe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Göztepe scores more
62%
level
22%
Bursaspor scores more
16%

Göztepe at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Göztepe 3–3 Bursaspor

Göztepe and Bursaspor drew 3-3 in Türkiye Kupası on December 15, 2020.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.