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Göztepe vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
U. Nayir 55', 38'
A. Jahović 41'
A. Çiçek 75'
D. Karakuş 62'
D. Kılınç 43'
11/19/20161. Lig1. Lig · Round 11Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Göztepe48%
×Draw26%
Bandırmaspor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.48
Bandırmaspor
1.00

Göztepe creates 48% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 112 away

creates per match

Göztepe
1.65
Bandırmaspor
1.31

allows per match

Göztepe
0.70
Bandırmaspor
1.32

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
74%
Göztepe or Bandırmaspor
74%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
52%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
24%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
77%
Göztepe 2+ goals
43%
Göztepe 3+ goals
19%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
63%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
26%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
65%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.65 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bandırmaspor attack 1.31 + Göztepe defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Göztepe scores more
48%
level
26%
Bandırmaspor scores more
26%

Göztepe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
David Deniz Kilinc
38'
U. Nayir
41'
A. Jahović
43'
D. Kılınç
46'
D. Kaya← J. Gosso
46'
F. Kıroğlu← Alex Amado
49'
Lokman Gör
55'
U. Nayir
62'
D. Karakuş
71'
A. Çiçek← D. Kılınç
72'
M. Uğurlu← G. Cansev
75'
A. Çiçek
78'
Halil Akbunar
80'
S. İyik← L. Gör
82'
F. Soyalp← Y. Gökoğlan
85'
Mehmet Erdem Uğurlu
90'
Leroy George
90'
Kivanc Karakas

Possession

47%Göztepe

Shots

9Göztepe

Statistics

GöztepeBandırmaspor
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots7
7Corners4
14Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots7
4On Target5
5Off Target2
Passing
47%Possession53%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
2Red Cards1
3Offsides3

1. Lig: Göztepe 3–3 Bandırmaspor

Göztepe and Bandırmaspor drew 3-3 in 1. Lig on November 19, 2016.

Goals: U. Nayir (38', 55'), A. Jahović (41'), D. Kılınç (43'), D. Karakuş (62'), A. Çiçek (75').

Bandırmaspor controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.