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Bandırmaspor vs Göztepe — 1. Lig 2018

Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Göztepe
Göztepe
G. Karadeniz 74'
D. Karakuş 50'
Ü. Bilgi 22'
A. Jahović 76'
4/18/20171. Lig1. Lig · Round 28Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Bandırmaspor38%
×Draw28%
Göztepe35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandırmaspor
1.24
Göztepe
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 44 away

creates per match

Bandırmaspor
1.55
Göztepe
1.30

allows per match

Bandırmaspor
1.06
Göztepe
0.93

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par
Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw
65%
Bandırmaspor or Göztepe
72%
Draw or Göztepe
62%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
16%
Göztepe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
71%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
35%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
13%
Göztepe 1+ goals
69%
Göztepe 2+ goals
33%
Göztepe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
52%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 114 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.55 + Göztepe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.24

Göztepe attack 1.30 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more
38%
level
28%
Göztepe scores more
35%

Bandırmaspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Ü. Bilgi
27'
Bahri Can Avci
44'
S. Özkan← T. Bingöl
45'
Marino
46'
P. Segbefia← H. Barış
50'
D. Karakuş
68'
U. Nayir← S. Dikmen
73'
S. Çam← F. Kıroğlu
74'
G. Karadeniz
76'
A. Jahović
85'
Ö. Çelik← D. Karakuş
90+2'
Ö. Kandemir← G. Karadeniz

Possession

45%Bandırmaspor

Shots

10Bandırmaspor

Statistics

BandırmasporGöztepe
Overview
45%Possession55%
10Total Shots11
6Corners5
19Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots11
7On Target5
3Off Target6
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
19Fouls12
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Bandırmaspor vs Göztepe

Bandırmaspor beat Göztepe 3-1 in 1. Lig on April 18, 2017.

Goals: Ü. Bilgi (22'), D. Karakuş (50'), G. Karadeniz (74'), A. Jahović (76').

Göztepe controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.