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Göztepe vs Altay — 1. Lig 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
CANC
16:00
Altay
Altay
11/27/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 15Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Göztepe51%
×Draw26%
Altay23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.55
Altay
0.95

Göztepe creates 63% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 87 away

creates per match

Göztepe
1.63
Altay
1.26

allows per match

Göztepe
0.63
Altay
1.48

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
77%
Göztepe or Altay
74%
Draw or Altay
49%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
27%
Altay wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
79%
Göztepe 2+ goals
46%
Göztepe 3+ goals
20%
Altay 1+ goals
61%
Altay 2+ goals
25%
Altay 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
69%
Altay (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

Altay away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.63 + Altay defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Altay attack 1.26 + Göztepe defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Göztepe scores more
51%
level
26%
Altay scores more
23%

Göztepe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Göztepe host Altay

November 27, 2022: Göztepe take on Altay in 1. Lig. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Göztepe host Altay at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.