Göztepe 3–0 1461 Trabzon FK: Result & Stats

Göztepe

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

1461 Trabzon FK

12/6/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Göztepe89%

×Draw9%

1461 Trabzon FK2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this match1461 Trabzon FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.28

Göztepe

2.83

1461 Trabzon FK

0.28

Göztepe creates 911% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

2.54

creates per match

0.25

0.31

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Göztepe

2.54

1461 Trabzon FK

0.25

allows per match

Göztepe

0.31

1461 Trabzon FK

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par

1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

1461 Trabzon FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–017%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–13%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

98%

Göztepe or 1461 Trabzon FK

91%

Draw or 1461 Trabzon FK

11%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

70%

1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

94%

Göztepe 2+ goals

77%

Göztepe 3+ goals

53%

1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals

24%

1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals

3%

1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

98%

1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

1461 Trabzon FK away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.54 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.83

1461 Trabzon FK attack 0.25 + Göztepe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Göztepe scores more

89%

level

9%

1461 Trabzon FK scores more

2%

Göztepe at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff