Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gourel Sangue vs SNIM — Premier League 2020

Gourel Sangue
Gourel Sangue
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SNIM
SNIM
6/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stade de Kaédi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gourel Sangue23%
×Draw28%
SNIM49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gourel Sangue
0.83
SNIM
1.34

SNIM creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

Gourel Sangue
0.62
SNIM
0.91

allows per match

Gourel Sangue
1.77
SNIM
1.05

finishing

Gourel Sangue+0.00on par
SNIM+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gourel Sangue ↓

SNIM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gourel Sangue or draw
51%
Gourel Sangue or SNIM
72%
Draw or SNIM
77%

Winning margin

Gourel Sangue wins by 2+
7%
SNIM wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gourel Sangue 1+ goals
56%
Gourel Sangue 2+ goals
20%
Gourel Sangue 3+ goals
5%
SNIM 1+ goals
74%
SNIM 2+ goals
39%
SNIM 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)
32%
SNIM (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gourel Sangue at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

SNIM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.05 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gourel Sangue attack 0.62 + SNIM defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.83

SNIM attack 0.91 + Gourel Sangue defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gourel Sangue scores more
23%
level
28%
SNIM scores more
49%

SNIM at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SNIM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Gourel Sangue 1–2 SNIM

SNIM beat Gourel Sangue 2-1 in Premier League on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Kaédi in Kaédi.